Imam Khataev vs Padraig McCrory

This looks like a hard night for Padraig McCrory. He is a decent professional who has travelled, taken chances and made more of his career than many expected. But he is 38 now, has been stopped twice, and is being matched against one of the strongest light-heavyweights operating just below the very top level. Imam Khataev is not unbeatable, but he is brutally physical.

McCrory is the taller, more measured boxer. He works behind a respectable jab, keeps his punches straight and can produce a useful right hand when an opponent marches in carelessly. He doesn't waste much movement and stays calm under ordinary pressure. The problem is that there will be nothing ordinary about Khataev’s pressure once he begins letting his hands go.

Khataev is built like a reinforced door and punches accordingly. His feet are quicker than his muscular frame suggests, and he closes distance behind a high guard before throwing short, heavy combinations. Against David Morrell, he dropped a world-class operator and was unfortunate to lose a split decision. However, that contest also exposed his weakness: he can load up, become predictable and lose some of his sharpness when forced to work continuously. His subsequent contest with Mickael Diallo also saw both men on the floor in the opening round.

McCrory’s best chance is to jab at Khataev’s chest, turn him after every exchange and drive the right uppercut between his gloves when he leans forward. Standing still and trying to match him punch for punch would be a terrible idea. McCrory can crack, but he lacks the speed or physical strength to win prolonged exchanges.

I expect McCrory to box sensibly for two or three rounds and make Khataev reset his feet. Once Khataev begins reaching the body, however, McCrory’s movement will slow, and the ring will become very small. He is tough enough to take several heavy shots, which may actually work against him. Khataev will be too young, too strong and far too powerful. My prediction is Khataev by referee’s stoppage.